Financiamento de Projetos através das Instituições Financeiras Internacionais Multilaterais

O OLAE tem uma equipa altamente especializada na preparação de projetos para financiamento através das Instituições Financeiras Internacionais Multilaterais, tais como o Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento e o Grupo Banco Mundial, com vasta experiência na realização destes projetos para governos de países e entidades privadas, com investimentos relevantes. Estes projetos obrigam ao domínio de um know-how muito específico e apenas raras entidades privadas dos países da CPLP são beneficiárias diretas destas fontes de financiamento. No entanto, devido ao tipo de instituições em causa, estas constituem algumas das melhores alternativas para financiar projetos, nomeadamente do setor privado, de grande alcance, em especial nos países em desenvolvimento.

Para informações sobre este assunto, caso tenha um projeto com relevância e enquadramento possível, para ser financiado por este tipo de instituições, envie um mail para geral@olae.pt com uma nota conceptual (1 a 2 páginas máximo) descrevendo o projeto, investimento a realizar, capitais próprios disponíveis e montante procurado.

Caso a equipa de projetos internacionais do OLAE entenda existir enquadramento para a sua ideia de projeto, será marcada uma primeira reunião gratuita para análise do projeto a desenvolver e passos seguintes a serem dados.

OECD calls for less austerity and more public investment

One-time deficit reduction supporter slashes growth forecasts and urges richer countries to exploit cheap borrowing to spend more on infrastructure.

The OECD has called for its rich-country members to ease up on austerity and collectively agree to spend more on infrastructure projects to boost flagging growth.

Financiamento do Desenvolvimento: Uma questão fundamental

O auxílio ao desenvolvimento tem vindo a diminuir em termos reais, ajustados à inflação e ainda mais quer em percentagem do rendimento dos países desenvolvidos quer numa base per capita nos países em desenvolvimento. A imposição de uma série de condições, algumas de natureza política, na prestação de auxílio não resultou. A condicionalidade não conduziu a melhores políticas, não acelerou o crescimento nem produziu melhores resultados. Embora o Banco Mundial tenha tentado aperfeiçoar a condicionalidade, alguns afirmam que ela devia ser substituída pela seletividade, ou seja auxiliar os países já com provas dadas, permitindo que sejam eles a escolher as suas próprias estratégias. Está provado que, como afirma Joseph Stiglitz, o auxílio prestado seletivamente pode ter impactos significativos, tanto na promoção do crescimento como na redução da pobreza.

Os mercados financeiros internacionais aumentam a eficiência e os lucros devido à divisão internacional do trabalho. O crescimento económico nos países emergentes é realçado não só pela disponibilidade de capital estrangeiro mas também pelo desenvolvimento dos centros financeiros locais que fazem a ponte com os mercados internacionais. Isto resultou na diminuição da importância do tamanho do mercado local, como fator de decisão da localização do investimento.

Assim, pequenos países, com mercados domésticos insignificantes à escala global, passaram a poder competir pela atração de IDE. Estes países com poucas fontes alternativas de capital para financiarem o seu desenvolvimento económico passaram a apostar em condições atrativas para os investidores externos. A maioria dos países liberalizou as suas políticas de IDE, e ofereceram várias formas de incentivos ao investimento estrangeiro, tais como incentivos fiscais, incentivos financeiros, especialmente subsídios e outro tipo de medidas como preferências sobre os mercados domésticos, criação de infraestruturas para auxiliar a atividade dessa empresa e até direitos monopolísticos, em alguns casos. O efeito da liberalização do comércio sobre o crescimento económico é provavelmente o mais estudado de todos os efeitos sobre o crescimento. As ligações teóricas entre liberalização e crescimento têm sido objeto de muitos estudos recentes. Em condições de liberalização financeira, um aumento da liberalização comercial, resulta num alargamento dos sectores exportadores, o que pode levar à redução do prémio de risco que os credores externos exigirão para emprestar a essa economia. Isto, segundo a teoria neoclássica, resulta num aumento do stock de capital nessa economia e consequentemente num mais rápido crescimento económico. A implicação teórica é que a liberalização comercial deve induzir não apenas um aumento do nível de rendimento mas também um aumento na taxa de crescimento económico. No entanto, as sucessivas crises financeiras na Ásia no final dos anos noventa e na Argentina no início do novo século devem levar-nos a reflectir mais maduramente sobre as condições em que tal abertura se processa e nos pressupostos em que esta opção pode ser bem-sucedida, elevando o nível de vida das populações. A redução das restrições à entrada de capitais pode gerar recursos adicionais para investimento, mas a redução das restrições às saídas de capitais pode paradoxalmente gerar o mesmo aumento de recursos para o investimento porque asseguram aos credores externos que poderão repatriar os seus fundos quando desejarem e afirmam aos investidores domésticos e externos que o capital estará menos sujeito a taxação. A integração financeira e a integração comercial estão associadas ao processo de globalização, importando analisar os efeitos de ambas sobre as economias dos países em desenvolvimento.

Em princípio, a globalização financeira permite o aumento das poupanças internas destinadas a financiarem o desenvolvimento. O fluxo de capitais Norte-Sul beneficia ambos os grupos pois, estes fluxos permitem um aumento do investimento nos países em desenvolvimento, ao mesmo tempo que permitem uma maior rendibilidade do capital do que seria possível nos países ricos.

A atração de IDE tem um potencial de geração de “spillovers” tecnológicos e de conduzir a melhores políticas. Parece haver uma relação entre a opção pela globalização financeira e o aumento do nível de desenvolvimento económico. Por um lado, os países ricos são mais integrados financeiramente com a economia global do que os países em desenvolvimento. Por outro lado, entre os países em desenvolvimento, as economias mais integradas financeiramente cresceram mais rápido do que as menos integradas, durante as últimas três décadas.

Os efeitos benéficos da globalização financeira são mais visíveis nos países em desenvolvimento com maior capacidade de absorção. A capacidade de absorção de um país corresponde à quantidade de recursos financeiros que o país consegue utilizar para obter crescimento económico. Os países necessitam de aumentar a sua capacidade de absorção de recursos financeiros se pretendem obter vantagens da globalização financeira.

A boa governação é um fator decisivo, condicionante, da capacidade de absorção. A corrupção tem um efeito negativo sobre o volume de IDE. A governação não é o único elemento determinante da capacidade de absorção de um país em desenvolvimento mas é um dos mais importantes. A composição das entradas de capital e a maturidade da divida externa estão associadas com a maior vulnerabilidade aos riscos da globalização financeira. O acesso ao mercado mundial de capitais pode levar ao endividamento excessivo, especialmente no caso de esse capital ser gasto em investimento não produtivo. Há alguma evidência empírica de que a integração financeira não é uma condição necessária para atingir uma alta taxa de crescimento. A China e a Índia obtiveram altas taxas de crescimento económico apesar de limitações à liberalização financeira.

Financiar o desenvolvimento envolve a mobilização de imensos recursos, sejam domésticos ou internacionais, a exploração de ganhos do comércio, promovendo a cooperação financeira internacional, envolvendo a transferência de fundos entre países, sectores, instituições, famílias e indivíduos. A mobilização e afetação de recursos para fins diversos implica a determinação de quem assume o controlo desses recursos o que pode alterar as estruturas de poder das sociedades locais, nomeadamente a posição relativa de poder entre o governo e o sector privado, investidores estrangeiros e países recetores, empresas e trabalhadores, etc. Neste sentido as estratégias de financiamento do desenvolvimento têm uma dimensão social não desprezível.

 

 

Some 80,000 refugees arrive in Europe in first six weeks of 2016

Despite rough seas and harsh winter weather, more than 80,000 refugees and migrants arrived in Europe by boat during the first six weeks of 2016, more than in the first four months of 2015, the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, announced today.
In addition it said more than 400 people had lost their lives trying to cross the Mediterranean. However, despite the dangers over 2,000 people a day continue to risk their lives and the lives of their children attempting to reach Europe.
Comparable figures for 2015 show such numbers only began arriving in July.
"The majority of those arriving in January 2016, nearly 58 per cent, were women and children; one in three people arriving to Greece were children as compared to just 1 in 10 in September 2015," UNHCR's Chief spokesperson Melissa Fleming told a press briefing in Geneva.
Fleming added that over 91 per cent of those arriving in Greece come from the world's top ten refugee producing countries, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
"Winter weather and rough seas have not deterred those desperate enough to make the journey, resulting in near daily shipwrecks," she added.
When surveyed upon arrival, most of them cite they had to leave their homeland due to conflict. More than 56 per cent of January arrivals to Greece were from Syria.
However, UNHCR stressed that solutions to Europe's situation were not only eminently possible, but had already been agreed by States and now urgently needed to be implemented. Stabilization is essential and something for which there is also strong public demand.
"Within the context of the necessary reduction of dangerous sea arrivals, safe access to seek asylum, including through resettlement and humanitarian admission, is a fundamental human right that must be protected and respected," Fleming added.
She said that regular pathways to Europe and elsewhere were important for allowing refugees to reach safety without putting their lives in the hands of smugglers and making dangerous sea crossings.
"Avenues, such as enhanced resettlement and humanitarian admission, family reunification, private sponsorship, and humanitarian and refugee student/work visas, should be established to ensure that movements are manageable, controlled and coordinated for countries receiving these refugees," Fleming added.
Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR's Director Bureau for Europe, added that faced with this situation, UNHCR hoped that EU Member States would implement at a faster pace all EU-wide measures agreed upon in 2015, including the implementation of hotspots and the relocation process for 160,000 people already in Greece and Italy and the EU-Turkey Joint-Action Plan.
"If Europe wants to avoid the mess of 2015, it must take action. There is no plan B," he also told the briefing.
UNHCR also called for more to be done to reinforce reception capacities at the points of entry to Europe, to allow for the humane and effective accommodation, assistance, registration and security screening of people arriving every day.
This is needed to identify those requiring protection, those who should be relocated to other countries within the EU, and those who do not qualify for refugee protection and for whom effective and dignified return mechanisms have to be put in place.
Regrettably, the first six weeks of 2016 have also seen multiple developments in Europe suggesting that some countries are prioritizing keeping refugees and migrants out over finding realistic solutions. Since the start of 2016 border control measures have been tightened in many European States. Despite repeated calls by UNHCR to expand legal pathways to allow refugees and asylum seekers to access asylum, many European Member States are in fact reducing the legal avenues available.
On the legal front, restrictive measures on family reunification were imposed in January in Denmark, with refugees now only able to apply for their family to join them after three years, instead of one.
"Other countries are contemplating similar or even more restrictive legislation at a time when European countries need to improve the legal and secure ways to access family reunion and thus combat smuggling," Fleming added.
Recent successive announcements of national measures aimed at trying to appear more unattractive than the neighbouring country only underlines the dire need for an effective comprehensive European response, the problems cannot simply be shifted from one country to another. A race to the bottom helps no-one.
UNHCR recognizes the challenges some European countries are facing due to significant arrivals of asylum seekers, refugees and migrants. Clearly States have a sovereign right to manage their borders; however, this must be done in accordance with national, EU and international law. The possible damaging impact of individual measures and practices on the rights and lives of refugees has to be considered.
Increasing acts of violence and prejudice have jeopardized the safety and well-being of refugees and asylum seekers across Europe. Fuelled by xenophobia and propaganda campaigns based on fear, refugee families, homes and places of worship are being targeted with hate crimes varying from physical attacks, vandalism, arson, and even more sinister incidents such as one where a mosque had blood thrown on its walls and a pig's head left at its door.
Some countries may instate policies to seize money and valuables from some asylum seekers with the purported aim of reducing costs of social assistance. Such measures carry enormous costs of their own, and have the effect of pandering to fear and discrimination.
Quick and thorough support mechanisms will be crucial for integrating people in countries receiving the highest number of refugees, including Germany and Sweden, to help dispel the fear and xenophobia and reinstate the common European principles of dignity, solidarity and human rights that the European Union was founded upon.

(UNHCR Jonathan Clayton, Geneva)

Orçamento de Estado 2016: Uma questão de opções políticas e sociais

O Orçamento de Estado para 2016 destaca-se não por introduzir riscos acrescidos de incumprimento perante os credores internacionais, ou de apresentar défice acima do previsto, mas acima de tudo por mudar as opções políticas e sociais, favorecendo os mais pobres e a classe média, penalizando os mais ricos (em especial os donos do capital, fundos de investimento imobiliário e a banca), precisamente ao contrário das opções políticas do anterior governo, que sistematicamente esmagaram os mais pobres e empobreceram a classe média, fazendo-os perder empregos, levando milhares de empresas à falência e ao fecho e obrigando centenas de milhares de portugueses a emigrarem.

Os objectivos para o défice do saldo orçamental, no final de 2016, poderão ser cumpridos, ou não, mas isso não depende em nada desta clara opção política por defender os mais fracos. Provavelmente, os valores cobrados com os impostos serão equivalentes aos que seriam cobrados com a coligação de direita no governo. A diferença está nos contribuintes e no esforço que terão de fazer. Parece que, para variar, desta vez não serão os mesmos de sempre a pagarem a conta sozinhos.

Assim, só posso estar de acordo com as opções políticas do atual governo e apoiar as decisões de política económica agora apresentadas.

Primeiro-Ministro explica pessoalmente o Orçamento de Estado 2016 numa série de vídeos.

Angola: currency devaluation and inflation are stressing poor people.

Angola is in the edge of a perfect storm, affecting economic, social and political structures.
Oil prices have declined, being foreseeable to remain low for longtime, due to shale oil supply and global demand reduce, affecting negatively Angolan revenues and conducting to budgetary deficits, lack of foreign currency and foreign exchange reserves falling abruptly causing devaluation and accelerating inflation grow in the short term. At the same time, fuel subsidies have been cut, reducing families’ disposable income. This dramatic rise in prices will cause a preference for foreign currency, especially US Dollars, causing a shortage in foreign currencies and stepping up exchange rates for those currencies to new heights. New Kwanza’s devaluations will mean more inflation and stress for Angolan consumers, particularly people used to have access to very expensive goods, who risk becoming the “new poor”, losing all their current life style and facing lack of liquidity sooner than they may expect.

Angolan economy external situation, as measured by net international reserves stock and the dynamics of average annual variation used to be healthy, representing historical enough for "roughly" nine months of imports of goods and services. Unfortunately, these figures are rapidly decreasing.

Decline in oil revenues forces Angola’s government to cut expenditures, mostly by reducing public investment. GDP will decrease sharply, as inflation and external debt rise. Budget is now experiencing a deep deficit that is going to force reduction and stops in public investments, especially in structural investments that would support growth in the long run. This is one of most concerning items in current figures, as long term growth is in risk.

The sharp drop in oil prices in international markets, which began in the second half of 2014 was a though blow to Angolan economy. That year, the pattern of economic activity interrupted the growing trend evidenced since 2009, and is expected to slow even more significantly in 2015 and 2016. For the second time in the past decade, the economy exhibited twin deficits, a reflection of the preponderance of oil revenues in the balance of public and external accounts. In the face of these adversities, Kwanza depreciated, causing inflationary pressures that interrupted the disinflation process started in mid-2011.

Inflation is now one of major concerns in Angolan economy as things seem to be worse than expected by central bank. Poor people are suffering. As usual…

Inflação é uma das maiores ameaças para as economias de Moçambique e de Angola

O aumento acelerado das taxas de inflação, nos últimos meses, em Angola e Moçambique, constitui uma ameaça de enormes proporções para o equilíbrio económico e social destes países. Em especial, as populações mais pobres estão agora com dificuldades acrescidas em adquirir os mais básicos bens alimentares, havendo potencial para convulsões sociais ao estilos das várias "crises do pão", que Moçambique conheceu no passado e que são potencialmente perigosas em Angola, num contexto de muito grave crise económica em que o país vive.
Note-se que, existe uma forte correlação entre as taxas de inflação e a desvalorização das moedas, em particular do Kwanza de Angola, contribuindo a inflação importada através da compra de bens ao estrangeiro, em moeda forte, para agravar esta situação.

UNHCR concerned over increasing restrictive measures, urges effective comprehensive European response

Over 80,000 refugees and migrants arrived in Europe by boat during the first six weeks of 2016 and over 400 have died trying to cross. Despite rougher seas, harsh winter weather, and numerous hardships endured upon arrival, over 2,000 people a day continue to risk their lives and the lives of their children attempting to reach Europe.
More people arrived during the first six weeks of 2016 than during the first four months of 2015; comparably large numbers began arriving in Europe only by July 2015. The majority of those arriving in January 2016, nearly 58%, were women and children; one in three people arriving to Greece were children as compared to just 1 in 10 in September 2015. Over 91% of those arriving in Greece come from the world's top ten refugee producing countries, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. Winter weather and rough seas have not deterred those desperate enough to make the journey, however, have resulted in near daily shipwrecks and search and rescue operations with some 400* dead. When surveyed upon arrival, most cite they had to leave their homeland due to conflict. More than 56 per cent of January arrivals to Greece were from Syria.
Solutions to Europe's situation are not only eminently possible, but have already been agreed by States and urgently need to be implemented. Stabilization is essential and something for which there is also strong public demand. Within the context of the necessary reduction of dangerous sea arrivals, safe access to seek asylum, including through resettlement and humanitarian admission, is a fundamental human right that must be protected and respected.
Regular pathways to Europe and elsewhere are important for allowing refugees to reach safety without putting their lives in the hands of smugglers and making dangerous sea crossings. Avenues, such as enhanced resettlement and humanitarian admission, family reunification, private sponsorship, and humanitarian and refugee student/work visas, should be established to ensure that movements are manageable, controlled and coordinated for countries receiving these refugees.
In response to this situation, UNHCR hopes that EU Member States will implement at a faster pace all EU-wide measures agreed upon in 2015, including the implementation of hotspots and the relocation process for 160,000 people already in Greece and Italy and the EU-Turkey Joint-Action Plan. More needs to be done to reinforce reception capacities at the points of entry to Europe, to allow for the humane and effective accommodation, assistance, registration and security screening of people arriving every day. This is needed to identify those requiring protection, those who should be relocated to other countries within the EU, and those who do not qualify for refugee protection and for whom effective and dignified return mechanisms have to be put in place.
Regrettably, the first six weeks of 2016 have also seen multiple developments in Europe suggesting that some countries are prioritizing keeping refugees and migrants out over finding realistic solutions. Since the start of 2016 border control measures have been tightened in many European States. Despite repeated calls by UNHCR to expand legal pathways to allow refugees and asylum seekers to access asylum, many European Member States are in fact reducing the legal avenues available.
On the legal front, restrictive measures on family reunification were imposed in January in Denmark, with refugees now only able to apply for their family to join them after three years, instead of one. Other countries are contemplating similar or even more restrictive legislation at a time where European countries need to improve the legal and secured ways to access family reunion and thus combat smuggling.
Recent successive announcements of national measures aiming at trying to appear more unattractive than the neighboring country only underlines the dire need for an effective comprehensive European response, the problems cannot simply be shifted from one country to another. A race to the bottom helps no-one.
UNHCR recognizes the challenges some European countries are facing due to significant arrivals of asylum seekers, refugees and migrants. Clearly States have a sovereign right to manage their borders; however, this must be done in accordance with national, EU and international law. The possible damaging impact of individual measures and practices on the rights and lives of refugees has to be considered.
Increasing acts of violence and prejudice have jeopardized the safety and well-being of refugees and asylum seekers across Europe. Fueled by xenophobia and propaganda campaigns based on fear, refugee families, homes and places of worship are being targeted with hate crimes varying from physical attacks, vandalism, arson, and even more sinister incidents such as one where a mosque had blood thrown on its walls and a pig's head left at its door.
Some countries may instate policies to seize money and valuables from some asylum seekers with the purported aim of reducing costs of social assistance. Such measures carry enormous costs of their own, and have the effect of pandering to fear and discrimination.
Quick and thorough support mechanisms will be crucial for integrating people in countries receiving the highest number of refugees, including Germany and Sweden, to help dispel the fear and xenophobia and reinstate the common European principles of dignity, solidarity and human rights that the European Union was founded upon.

(This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Melissa Fleming – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at the press briefing, on 12 February 2016, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.)

Doença holandesa afeta economia de Moçambique.

Os efeitos da doença holandesa sobre a economia de Moçambique estão a afetar profundamente o nível de vida das populações mais pobres, existindo condições para o regresso de alguma agitação social muito em breve. No entanto, a economia moçambicana contínua a apresentar excelentes condições para rápido crescimento económico e desenvolvimento de estruturas de apoio social reforçadas a médio prazo. O OLAE encara com otimismo o futuro de Moçambique, ainda que problemas de curto prazo, em especial com falhas associadas ao desempenho da política cambial possam fazer o país incorrer em riscos preocupantes.

Prémios SEED África 2016

A sua empresa encontra-se numa fase de arranque e integra benefícios sociais e ambientais?

Precisa de apoio para a implementação e desenvolvimento da sua empresa?

SEED iniciou a apresentação de candidaturas para os Prémios SEED África 2016.

Cada Vencedor dos Prémios irá receber um pacote de serviços personalizados de suporte incluindo desenvolvimento de competências, desenvolvimento de redes e caracterização do perfil na SEED Africa Symposium.

Candidate-se até 21 de março! http://adelph.it/SEED2016

Este ano, os prémios SEED estão disponíveis apenas em nove países (Burkina Faso, Gana, Quénia , Maurícias, Moçambique , Malawi, Namíbia, África do Sul e Uganda).

Quais os empregos disponíveis nas empresas de topo em 2016?

A Ivy Exec fez um levantamento dos empregos nas empresas de topo com quem se relaciona e construiu um relatório dedicado a este tema. Assim, o 2016 Hiring Outlook vai orienta-lo para as melhores opções da sua carreira.

A Ivy Exec dá-lhe também acesso a:
- Oportunidades de emprego de topo em todo o mundo;
- Apoio personalizado com o seu conselheiro Ivy Exec;
- Rede de Mentores constituída por executivos seniores de topo;
- Webinars ao vivo com peritos em gestão de carreiras;
- Fazer parte da rede de membros que poderão ser recrutados para empregos ou oportunidades de consultoria.

A Ivy Exec está agora a oferecer a possibilidade de experimentar gratuitamente todas as funcionalidades da ferramenta online durante um mês.
Para começar, poderá aceder ao link abaixo e registar-se, utilizando o código promocional que foi atribuído para oferta do primeiro mês de membro gratuito.

Link: http://affiliates.ivyexec.com/jrox.php?id=1885

Código de promoção que deve utilizar para beneficiar da oferta de um mês gratuito: MOZAM2015

www.ivyexec.com


About Ivy Exec

Ivy Exec's is a membership community of 600,000+ top-flight professionals who are ready to take the next step in their career. Ivy Exec offers a suite of career resources, including access to carefully curated job opportunities & consulting assignments, industry mentors & career advisors, online classes for continued professional development, and insider reviews on the best companies to work for & top MBA programs.

X Seminário de Macroeconomia e Teoria e Modelos de Crescimento Económico, na Universidade Lusófona, em Lisboa.

O X Seminário de Macroeconomia e Teoria e Modelos de Crescimento Económico marca uma década de realização de trabalho de investigação incessante desenvolvido nestas duas disciplinas entre professores e alunos, na Universidade Lusófona. Esta é uma metodologia vencedora, demonstrada ao longo de dez anos através da qualidade dos trabalhos apresentados publicamente nas sessões de seminário. O evento terá o seu início às 14.00 horas, neste sábado, dia 16 de Janeiro de 2016.

The endless walk across Europe to safety

Every day tens of thousands of refugees are continuing a long and difficult journey across Europe. They don’t know where they may end up, but as they continue by foot, bus or train, some pushed in wheelchairs or baby strollers, these families are desperately hoping that they will find a safer future. UNHCR is by their side supporting these vulnerable people, who are just like us . Across Europe, over 60 additional staff members have been deployed to provide vital assistance and information in a situation where the needs are great and confusion aplenty. Your support could make all the difference to helping these refugees.

Loss of hope and deepening poverty driving Syrians to seek refuge in Europe

The UN refugee agency today identified loss of hope and appalling living conditions as major factors behind the recent spike in the number of Syrian refugees from the region seeking asylum in Europe.
Around four million Syrian refugees are currently living in neighbouring countries, but recent months have seen a marked increase in the number of those seeking refuge further afield, notably in Europe.
Amin Awad, Director UNHCR Bureau for Middle East and North Africa, said this was primarily because of a loss of hope of being able to return home and deteriorating living conditions in the countries where Syrian refugees are currently living.
"Refugees face horrible living conditions, and restrictions in the legal regimes for refugees in the countries where they live … When people don't have proper shelter and are living on 45 cents a day of course they want to move," he told a press briefing in Geneva, adding: "Syrians are checking out from the neighbouring countries."
In total, there have now been almost 429,000 asylum applications by Syrians in Europe since 2011, but due to the lack of reception facilities in Europe many of the most recent arrivals have yet to apply.
"Refugees are having to adopt negative survival strategies – like child labour, dropping out of school, begging and survival sex. They need much more support," Awad, who is also the Regional Refugee Coordinator for the Syria Region, said.
"These are societies that put a high value on education and now they are seeing their children out of school."
He stressed the situation would only end when a solution was found for Syria and the region stabilised.
"Syria is burning; towns are destroyed and that's why people are on the move, that's why we have an avalanche, a tsunami of people on the move towards Europe… As long as there's no resolution in Syria and no improved conditions in neighbouring countries, people will move," he told the briefing at the UN's Geneva headquarters.
Based on ongoing monitoring and assessments, surveys, focus group discussions, and daily interaction with refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Iraq, UNHCR has identified seven principal factors behind the latest outflows.
These are:
Loss of hope
With Syria's crisis now into its fifth year and no sign of a solution in sight, hope is dwindling for many refugees. Feelings of uncertainty about the future are compounded by miserable conditions, fuelling a sense of despair and desperation.
High costs of living/Deepening poverty
Refugees in Lebanon cite the high cost of living as a factor in deciding to stay or go.
In Egypt, refugees say it is getting harder to pay rent, manage high levels of indebtedness and afford their basic needs. In Jordan, the inability to provide for one's family was the most common reason cited by people who knew someone who had left.
The cumulative effect of four years in exile with restricted access to legal employment was also said to be taking its toll. In many cases savings are long depleted, precious valuables have been sold off and many refugees across the region live in miserable conditions, struggling to pay rent, feed their families, and cover their basic needs.
Limited livelihood opportunities
Without ability to work, many refugees struggle to make a living. Lack of livelihood opportunities or access to the formal labour market was cited as a problem by refugees in Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan. Syrian refugees in Iraq say the large number of internally displaced people has increased competition for jobs in the Kurdistan region of the country. Meanwhile, work on construction sites in the region has dried up with the drop in oil prices.
The lack of access to legal work leads refugees, desperate to provide for themselves, to resort to informal employment – risking exploitation, working in unsafe conditions or having payment withheld by unscrupulous employers. If caught working illegally, some refugees face sanctions, for example in Jordan being returned to a camp. Under new regulations in Lebanon, refugees must sign a pledge not to work when renewing their residency status.
Aid shortfalls
Aid programmes for refugees and host communities in the region have been plagued by chronic funding shortages. The current inter-agency Syrian regional refugee and resilience (3RP) plan for 2015 is only 41% funded, which has meant cuts in food aid for thousands of refugees, and those that get it having to survive on US$0.45-0.50 a day. Many refugees in Jordan told UNHCR the WFP food aid cuts were the last straw in their decision to leave the country. Tens of thousands miss out on cash assistance, sinking deeper into debt. As a result people resort to negative coping strategies – including begging, child labour, and increased indebtedness. Shrinking humanitarian aid was cited by refugees in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt as cause of desperation and a driver of onward movement.
In Jordan, inadequate funding has seen refugees losing free access to healthcare. As a result, 58.3 per cent of adults with chronic conditions do without medicine or health services, up from 23 per cent in 2014. There is also a marked decrease in access to curative and preventative health care.
Hurdles to renew legal residency
In Lebanon, new regulations for Syrian refugees have made it harder for Syrians to access asylum, and increasingly Syrians transit through Lebanon to Turkey. Refugees already in the country must pay US $200 per year to renew their stay. They are required to sign a pledge not to work and they must present a certified lease agreement. Many refugees are fearful of arrest or detention and feel vulnerable because of lapsed residency visas.
In Jordan, an urban verification exercise launched by the authorities in February to ensure that all Syrians residing outside of camps are issued with a new identity document to access services presents a number of challenges. The cost of obtaining a health certificate as part of the process can be prohibitive.
Scant education opportunities
Limited education opportunities were cited as a problem for refugees in Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq. Education is highly valued among Syrians, who enjoyed free and mandatory schooling at home before the war. The worsening conditions that refugees face in exile are having a devastating impact on the education of refugees. In Jordan, some 20 per cent of children are abandoning school in order to work and in some cases girls are being forced into early marriage. Some 90,000 Syrians of school age have no formal education, with 30,000 of those accessing informal education and the rest missing out completely.
In Lebanon, where education is free to Syrians in a two-shift system, many children struggle to attend or find the new curriculum too difficult while at the same time working to support their families. While the Ministry of Education has increased by 100 per cent the number of places for Syrian children (that is, 200,000 in the 2015/2016 school year), another 200,000 Syrian children will be out of school this year.
Across the region, Syrian youth are missing out on tertiary education and losing hope about their future.
Feeling unsafe
The majority of displaced Iraqis, UNHCR spoke to who were travelling outside Iraq reported feeling unsafe in the country. Many people from minority groups have told UNHCR they see migration as the key to their physical safety.
The information gathered mainly applies to Syrians living as refugees in the region, but also overlaps with internally displaced people in Iraq and Syria.
By Ariane Rummery

Refugee crisis: EU splits exposed at emergency summit. EU agrees extra funding but no common policy on refugee crisis.

The UN’s refugee agency has expressed its dismay at the failure of the EU summit to agree on ways of offering refugees legal protection.
In a carefully-worded statement the UNHCR welcomed the allocation of extra resources and the decision to ratify the binding quota plan but it said much more was needed.
It said:

 

UNHCR is disappointed that, notwithstanding relocation, no further measures have been proposed to create more legal pathways for refugees to reach safety in Europe. UNHCR urges a substantial and rapid increase in legal opportunities for refugees to access the EU, including enhanced resettlement and humanitarian admission, family reunification, private sponsorship, and humanitarian and student visas.
The international community as a whole should adopt the type of exceptional response which had been used in other humanitarian crises. Without such avenues, refugees will continue to be left with few options, and the increase in international efforts to crack down on smugglers and traffickers is unlikely to be effective ...
In relation to strengthening border control at the EU external border, UNHCR insists that the management of borders needs to be consistent with national, EU and international law, including guaranteeing the right to seek asylum.

António Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, added:“The relocation plan will not put an end to the problem, but it hopefully will be the beginning of a solution ...
Much more needs to be done. The plan can only work if, at entry points in Europe, robust facilities are created to receive, assist, register and screen people. These facilities must have a capacity that could handle the current average 5,000 people arriving every day by boat. They must also offer those in need of international protection a credible alternative to the present chaotic journeys across border after border at the mercy of criminal smugglers.”

Definitivamente contra aqueles que espalham o medo dos refugiados.

Este é um momento histórico da maior relevância. A Europa tem muito a ganhar com a vinda dos refugiados. Basta pensar o que aconteceu com as vagas de judeus expulsos da península ibérica ou protestantes expulsos de França. Quem ficou a ganhar? Os países recetores enriqueceram enquanto os países de origem empobreceram. Por outro lado, na segunda guerra mundial as fugas de judeus acabaram por levar inteligência, mão-de-obra e dinheiro para os países de acolhimento empobrecendo aqueles que os expulsaram. Infelizmente, esta vaga de refugiados faz lembrar esses dias do nazismo. Tal como nesse tempo, esta gente foge da morte, foge da intolerância e foge da ignorância. Não é de estranhar que os descendentes dos Nazis sejam hoje os mesmos que espalham o medo contra os refugiados. Acusam que se dá aos refugiados a ajuda que se nega aos portugueses necessitados, mas na verdade a maioria destas pessoas nada faz para ajudar os tais compatriotas em dificuldades. Bem pelo contrário, são aqueles que costumam ajudar os nossos cidadãos em dificuldades quem agora mais rapidamente se organizou para ajudar os refugiados.

Nações Unidas recomendam a reestruturação da dívida sem esquecer a democracia

Contra a vontade de alguns dos maiores credores mundiais - Alemanha, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos - e da própria União Europeia, que se absteve, a assembleia das Nações Unidas aprovou, na quinta-feira, 10, um conjunto de nove princípios democráticos que devem sobrepor-se à voracidade dos credores sempre que um país tenha de reestruturar a dívida. Em sua defesa, além dos 136 membros que votaram a favor, estiveram 19 conhecidos economistas, entre os quais Yanis Varoufakis, ex-ministro grego das Finanças, e Thomas Piketty, autor do livro-sensação O Capital no século XXI.

Para evitar novas Argentinas (ainda em litígio contra os fundos-abutre) ou novas Grécias, as Nações Unidas recomendam que as partes negociadoras não se esqueçam de incluir, nas suas contas, o respeito por princípios universais como a soberania, boa fé, transparência, imparcialidade, igualdade de tratamento, imunidade soberana, legitimidade, sustentabilidade e que qualquer reestruturação de dívida deve ser sempre aprovada por maioria. Assim, quem empresta deve cooperar com quem pede emprestado, reconhecendo a legitimidade de um país soberano orientar a sua política macroeconómica no sentido do crescimento, desde que os direitos dos credores não sejam postos em causa. A despolitização do sistema financeiro e a ausência de alternativas às políticas de austeridade são também referidas no documento.

No manifesto assinado pelos 19 economistas, a situação recente da Grécia está bastante presente. "A crise grega tornou claro que os países que agem isoladamente não conseguem negociar condições razoáveis para a reestruturação da sua dívida." E terminavam apelando à União Europeia que votasse favoravelmente a resolução.

A Argentina, forçada pelos credores a aceitar uma dura renegociação da dívida em 2002, foi um dos países mais empenhados na aprovação da recomendação. O ministro dos Estrangeiros, Héctor Timerman, declarou, perante a assembleia das Nações Unidas: "Esta é uma resolução a favor da estabilidade económica e social, da paz e do desenvolvimento. A dívida é hoje responsável pela violência, pela desigualdade e pelas situações em que os poderosos ficam em vantagem perante o países menos desenvolvidos que precisam de capital."

Os Estados Unidos, o Reino Unido e a União Europeia (enquanto bloco de países, incluindo a Grécia...) alegaram a vontade de preservar o papel de árbitro do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), no que respeita aos planos de reestruturação de dívida soberana, para justificar as suas posições.

(VISÃO)

UNHCR warns that time is running out for Europe to resolve refugee emergency

This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Adrian Edwards – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at the press briefing, on 18 September 2015, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.

Yesterday's mayhem on the Serbian border with Croatia, which has since closed some entry points, and Wednesday's dramatic situation on the Hungarian border demonstrate the chaos and confusion being caused by the absence of a coherent and united response to Europe's refugee situation.

With more than 442,440 refugees and migrants having arrived via the Mediterranean so far this year, some 2,921 deaths, and 4000 people arriving on the Greek islands daily, the crisis is growing and being pushed from one country to another without solution. The suffering and risks for thousands of refugees and migrants are meanwhile increasing as uncertainty and a lack of information fuels desperation, raises the likelihood of further incidents, and stokes hostility towards people who have fled persecution and conflict and are in need of help. This environment is fertile ground for people-smugglers and others seeking to prey on this vulnerable population.

Against the context of these events UNHCR believes Thursday's decision of the European Parliament to back plans for the relocation of an additional 120,000 people to all countries of the European Union deserves applause. The Extraordinary Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting on 22 September, and the European Council meeting that has been called for 23rd of September will now be crucially important for coming to agreement. These occasions may be the last opportunity for a positive, united and coherent European response to this crisis.

UNHCR recognizes that Europe is struggling to deal with this situation, and commends the countries and their citizens that have shown willingness to resettle refugees and respond positively to a situation which although challenging is manageable, provided that Europe is united in contributing to an effective response.

UNHCR has this week proposed a number of measures towards the wider goal of helping Europe to collectively resolve this situation, namely:
- The immediate creation of facilities in Greece to receive, assist, register and screen people arriving.
- The immediate start of a process, from Greece and from existing centers in Italy, for the relocation of 40,000 refugees agreed to by the Council to participating EU countries. This should be expanded by additional voluntary pledges by EU states against the new proposals of the European Commission.
- An emergency package from the EU to Serbia to establish a similar capacity to properly assist, register and relocate people to other European countries.

- In parallel, UNHCR urges that there be a substantial increase in opportunities for Syrian refugees hosted in neighboring countries to Syria to access legal channels to the EU including enhanced resettlement and humanitarian admission, family reunification and humanitarian and student visas.

Turquia será o país da Europa com maior crescimento económico nos próximos 20 anos.

O GPE – Gabinete de Previsão Económica do OLAE – Observatório Lusófono de Actividades Económicas prevê que a Turquia será o país da Europa com maior crescimento económico nos próximos vinte anos.

O PIB da Turquia atingirá um valor próximo de 1 400 000 milhões de Euros a preços constantes de 2012, continuando a ser a sexta maior economia da Europa, mas aproximando-se da quinta e quarta maiores economias que continuarão a ser a Espanha e Itália, sendo que a Itália com um desempenho muito fraco desde o início do novo século e com uma projecção nos últimos lugares da lista vê estes dois países aproximarem-se rapidamente. O PIB per capita da Turquia crescerá previsivelmente para valores pouco abaixo dos 20 mil Euros.

Portugal com uma tendência de crescimento do PIB potencial que continua a ser muito baixa, estimando o OLAE que se situará agora pouco acima de 1% por ano, fica no último terço da lista de países da Europa, arriscando ser um país com muito fraco desempenho económico, sendo praticamente certo que em termos per capita será ultrapassado pela Estónia, República Checa e Eslováquia, estimando-se que este valor ficará muito próximo do que apresentarão Letónia, Lituânia, Hungria, Polónia e Croácia, dentro de vinte anos. Em termos absolutos estima-se que Portugal será ultrapassado pela Irlanda, Cazaquistão e República Checa, ficando com um valor próximo do que terá a Roménia em 2035.

Este estudo recorreu ao modelo desenvolvido pelo próprio OLAE, considerando não apenas os dados macroeconómicos normalmente utilizados por instituições congéneres, mas recorrendo também à incorporação de impactos da estrutura de custos produtivos das empresas, indicadores do endividamento e da possibilidade de investimento e financiamento das empresas privadas, capacidade de atração de investimento direto estrangeiro, eficiência económica do país e capacidade de absorção de recursos financeiros e transformação em crescimento económico duradouro.

Naturalmente, tratando-se de uma previsão de muito longo prazo existem muitas variáveis que podem e irão alterar-se ao longo do tempo, no entanto os resultados deste estudo dão-nos uma noção clara e importante sobre o ponto de partida em que cada uma das economias se encontra.

Durante as próximas semanas, o OLAE irá divulgar mais resultados deste estudo.